Waiting for Katrina---The Next Hurricane

By Katrina Kernodle and Shiho Ochiai Thompson

As damages to property and loss of life from Hurricane Katrina's aftermath continue to mount, Lee awaits next in line. From Arlene to Jose, the 2005 Atlantic hurricanes had left the U.S. relatively unscathed. Hurricane Dennis, the last major hurricanes of the 2005 season to strike prior to Katrina, did not cause the degree of damage that had been feared by officials and locals alike. The Category 3 storm struck on July 10 near Pensacola, Florida leaving damages in the $2 to $5 billion range. 1

Sadly, this was not the case with Katrina. Wreckage from the tempest and the human as well as economic impact may surpass even the damage inflicted in 1969 by the devastating Hurricane Camille which struck Mississippi with 185 mile-an-hour winds and a 25-foot storm surge and killed 256 people. 2Katrina's slight shift eastward ravaged Mississippi this week as the death toll in the state climbs beyond 100. The storm surge in Mississippi exceeded 20-feet when Katrina made landfall and was 10-feet as it continued east into Alabama's Mobile Bay. 3

Hurricanes are the most costly disaster continually faced by the United States. During the 2004 Atlantic hurricane season, Hurricane Ivan, a Category 3 hurricane, caused at least 52 deaths in the U.S. in addition to a death toll of seventy in the Caribbean. 4Ivan's economic toll of $13 billion in the U.S. alone had placed the hurricane as the third most costly U.S. hurricane ever according to the Insurance Information Institute. Katrina's early estimates have pushed Ivan into fourth just behind Hurricane Charley's $14 billion in damages (but well below the $26 billion price tag of Hurricane Andrew in 1992). 5Katrina is expected to surpass even Andrew's price tag according to various estimates by risk modeling firms. 6

While the decreased size and increased speed at which Hurricane Dennis traveled across land had spared Floridians from a more relentless disaster, 7 Katrina's northwest turn after the hurricane struck Florida on August 25 had the opposite effect. The short-lived relief in New Orleans as the hurricane shifted slightly east before landfall has turned into sadness and desperation as 80% of the city disappeared below water after two levees broke and submerged the city late Monday. 8Had the city not enforced mass evacuations, the toll on human life, which still remains to be seen, would arguably far worse.

During Ivan, Louisiana enforced mandatory evacuations in seven parishes while six other parishes urged voluntary evacuations. More than one-third of the population of the New Orleans metropolitan area evacuated voluntarily. Mississippi evacuated vulnerable areas in three counties, and Alabama ordered people in Mobile and Baldwin along with outlying suburbs to evacuate. Florida enforced a full evacuation of the Florida Keys; however, as Ivan tracked further west than predicted, mandatory evacuations were lifted. Still, Florida encouraged voluntary evacuations in ten counties in the western Panhandle region of the state. 9

Similarly in the case of Dennis, prior to making landfall, the lower Florida Keys were placed under a mandatory evacuation order; however, the evacuation order was cancelled by the evening of July 8 because the State deemed that there was no longer sufficient time to evacuate safely. Furthermore, the governors of Florida, Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana all had declared states of emergency. Southbound lanes on Interstate 65 from Mobile were closed at 6 am on July 9 and all traffic was redirected to the northbound lanes to allow for continued evacuations.

Concerns about Dennis led Mississippi to issue evacuation orders in three counties and Florida evacuated a coastal stretch from Escambia County to Bay County. Military installations including NAS Pensacola, Whiting Field, Eglin AFB and Tyndall AFB all had evacuated days before the Dennis made landfall. 10

In Ivan's aftermath, FEMA house inspections revealed that more than 700,000 houses in Florida suffered varying degrees of damage –– the four 2004 hurricanes destroyed more than 25,000 homes completely and caused major damage to more than 40,000 homes. 11In order to help communities recover from the devastating aftermath of the 2004 hurricanes, Florida and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) initiated a pilot program called the Long Term Recovery Initiative. 12

The Long Term Recovery Initiative launched “action-oriented” recovery activities for communities in the Panhandle and southwest Florida such as housing development and downtown revitalization projects. Federal, state, and local agencies have collaborated as a result and have included local business owners and residents who gathered in a series of town meetings and brainstorming sessions during the planning phase. Florida's Department of Community Affairs hosted Disaster Recovery Workshops to pool resources and support for sixteen designated counties affected by the storms. 13Large portions of federal grants for disaster relief programs have been allocated to Florida, including $100 million for the Community Development Block Grant administered by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. 14To date, federal and state disaster assistance for communities affected by the hurricanes of 2004 totals more than $5.6 billion. 15

Similarly, federal and state assistance have proven critical in the aftermath of Dennis. Since the July 10 presidential disaster declaration, more than 30,000 applicants have registered with FEMA for assistance in recovery from Dennis. By July 27, more than $12.7 million in housing and other needs had been approved. 16

Despite sophisticated monitoring along with coordinated preparedness as well as response and recovery, disaster mitigation suffers when people fail to heed the surplus of warnings and evacuation notices. As was the case in the 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens when innkeeper Harry Truman perished after refusing to leave his mountain inn despite repeated pleas from authorities, there will inevitably be “Harry Truman's” in any disaster. The best disaster planning is only as effective as its partakers and is always at the mercy of the whim of disaster. As evidenced during Dennis last month, shape and speed of the storm served as the greatest mitigating factor far beyond human measures. Hopefully, Katrina will simply leave us alone.

1 “Dennis Moves North After Landfall.” Hurricanes.net Internet Website. July 11, 2005.

2 “New Orleans Braces for Monster.” CNN . August 28, 2005.

3 Willie Drye. “Gulf Coast Surveys Damage from Hurricane Katrina.” National Geographic. August 30, 2005.

4 “Florida's Summer of Storms.” Palm Beach Post Internet Website. 2005.

5 Insurance Information Institute Internet Website. 2005.

6 “Katrina Cost Estimates Veer Wildly.” Chicago Tribune . August 30 2005.

7 “Hurricane Dennis.” Wikipedia Internet Website. August 12, 2005.

8 “Levee Breaks Devastate New Orleans.” International Herald Tribune. September 1, 2005.

9 “Hurricane Ivan.” Wikipedia Internet Website. August 11, 2005.

10 “Hurricane Dennis.” Wikipedia Internet Website. August 12, 2005.

11Recommendations to Assist in Florida's Long Term Housing Recovery Efforts. Hurricane Housing Work Group. February 2005 and “In Florida, FEMA Plans to House Thousands.” The Washington Post . November 27, 2004. p. A17.

12 Todd Davison, Mitigation Division Manager Region IV, FEMA; Department of Homeland Security. “Long Term Recovery.” May 2005.

13Ibid.

14 “Disaster Recovery Initiative.” Florida Department of Community Affairs Internet Website. 2005.

15 “Florida 2004 Hurricane Recovery Passes $5.6 Billion Mark.” FEMA Internet Website. 2005.

16 “Individual Assistance for Dennis Victims Nearing $13 million Mark.” FEMA Internet Website. July 28, 2005.