Construction Outlook 2008: Not as Bad as It Could Be


The construction industry, residential builders in particular, faced downturns in 2007. In some cases, it appears that 2008 will be bringing more bad news. The construction industry is well aware that the market for single-family homes is not looking up. With new homes sales down nationally over 26% in 2007 as compared to 2006, tightening lending standards and a large inventory of unsold homes have decreased demand (as can be expected). Twelve of the largest homebuilders dumped 1.1 million lots across the country, about 45% of their inventory, in 2007. The forecast for multi-family housing is not much better. It may be a good time to buy; however, selling and building are “off the table.”

The good news is that several key markets, for a variety of reasons, are strong or, at least, stable. With baby boomers hitting retirement age and many of their parents aging into their 90s, facilities for seniors and assisted-living centers have continued to gain hold in the construction market in recent years. In addition, hospitals and healthcare as well as educational facilities remain strong throughout the country.

Green building and design, energy, and public works are among other key markets that hold promise for the construction industry for the foreseeable future also.

“Green” nonresidential construction was valued at more than $13 billion in 2006. 2008 projections indicate a 58% increase (or more than $21.2 billion) in green construction or renovation of nonresidential facilities and properties. Part of the strength of this market is a shifting perception among owners and the industry that “green” capabilities and experience are seen as “best practices” for designers and construction contractors.

Policymakers, jumping on the “green” bandwagon at all levels of government, are helping to spur green design and construction. On January 17, 2008, the Environmental Protection Agency released a plan –– Managing Wet Weather with Green Infrastructure Action Strategy 2008 –– to reduce stormwater runoff and sewer overflows by promoting green infrastructure.

Local government agencies also are forging ahead in the green movement –– not only facilitating green construction but also, in some instances, mandating it. Last year, Washington, D.C.'s Green Building Act went into effect marking the first time that any U.S. city mandated Leadership in Energy & Environmental Design (LEED) compliance for all public and private projects in the nation's capital. New York City's green building law, which went into effect on January 1, 2007, requires LEED compliance on private sector building projects.

Industry forecasters should keep an eye on the state of California as well. Last November, the Los Angeles Planning Commission approved one of the most ambitious green building plans of any large city in the country. In a state known for its aggressive eco-efforts and landmark 2006 global warming law, LA's plan requires large new developments to be 15% more energy efficient, in addition to significant restrictions on water use, in an effort to minimize impacts on the environment.

Energy-related construction is another market sector with a bright future. “Green” and “clean” energy measures are popular among politicians, the public and the media. This popularity may explain the 41% increase in new funding for U.S. clean energy programs and projects during 2007.

Wind energy continues to grow in the U.S. while wave energy is gaining interest in coastal states, such as Oregon which has been targeted for seven of twelve West Coast wave energy facilities. In January, the Oregon Wave Energy Trust received the first part of its $4.2 million budget approved by the Oregon state legislature in 2007.

Solar energy should not be overlooked for its market potential. With Nevada Solar One, a 64-megawatt solar plant near Boulder City, producing electricity since last year and the recent completion of a $100 million, 14-megawatt solar plant at Nellis Air Force Base in Nevada, progress in this energy sector is worth watching.

Nuclear energy also is on the “green” bandwagon as evidenced by the Nuclear Energy Institute's (NEI) “Clean Air Energy” slogan and policy updates extolling nuclear energy as a “key tool in reducing greenhouse gas emissions.” In February of this year, NEI reported that U.S. nuclear power plants set a record high for electricity production efficiency in 2007. With Congress backing the FY 2008 appropriations bill that provides more than $970 million for various nuclear energy programs, and DOE's recent request to increase funding for the Nuclear Power 2010 program by 79% in 2009, the construction industry should keep a close eye on this market sector.

Public works infrastructure is arguably the most promising U.S. construction market for 2008. The construction industry anticipates a 3% gain, or roughly $121 billion, in 2008 public works projects. The GAO reports that for more than 60 years, state transportation departments have outsourced most construction work, and increasingly states are contracting with third parties to conduct preliminary services (i.e. environmental studies and planning, preliminary engineering, etc.), construction management, maintenance services and on-going operations.

In 2008 and beyond, it's critical to be aware of trends in the U.S. construction market. Keeping an eye on the road ahead may be the only way to stay in the race.

For more information, comments or questions on this article, please contact us at fka@fkassociates.com.











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